Browser Wars Heat Up, Again
Browser Wars, Again
United States vs. Microsoft

First, A Retrospective on 2008

Rather, 2008 seemed more like a battle of egos. Each browser team had something to prove to the world. Safari boasted about being the fastest browser on the planet, proving that its browsing experience could be as fast and rich as a desktop experience. (Mozilla Firefox and Google Chrome weren’t far behind.) Mozilla touted it’s “Safer, Faster, Better” mantra and proved that many users do care about their browsing experience, particularly in regards to safety and personalization. Firefox managed to garner more than 20% of all users worldwide. (Firefox usage is actually much higher at home, since many users are restricted from using the better browsers at their place of work.) Finally, Google reiterated it’s “Do no evil” slogan by creating a browser that was blindingly fast on Windows, but didn’t crash. Google proved that there is still room for innovation and improvements in browser design.

(In fairness to the Opera devotees, Opera showed us how the web experienced could be enhanced by better organization and streamlining, but again, unfortunately, Opera failed to gain any market share in 2008. And, NO, Opera is not the fastest browser any more. Not since Safari 3.0. In my own tests and every other test on record, Safari 3/Mac wins over Opera on any OS. Chrome 1.0 and Firefox 3.1 beat it, now too.)

And The Winner of the Browser Wars is…
Three New Safari 3.0 Tricks Are Producing Leopard Lust
Browser Market Share

We also saw some new special-purpose browsers come on the scene. Some of these were introduced in 2007 or earlier, but most people didn’t take notice until late 2008. Some special-purpose browsers to note:
Flock (for social networking)
Songbird (for discovering and listening to music)
Blackbird (for African Americans)
Gloss (for women)

Notably absent from this discussion is Microsoft’s Internet Explorer. What did it have to prove? Hm. I’d have to say that IE proved that the majority of users — the common consumers and stagnant corporations — don’t know what is good for them, they’ll use whatever you give them, and you can repeatedly abuse them without fear of too much retribution.

Microsoft is working on IE 8 and expects it to be ready some time in 2009. This is the second time since 2000 that Microsoft resuscitated the IE team from near death, both times to answer to the threat of Firefox. And in both times, they plan to do just enough work so that users won’t rush over to Firefox. Of course, early previews show that it will again be lagging behind the other browsers in every way (features, capabilities, and speed). More importantly, will attract almost no attention because nobody will care about an upgraded bottom-of-the-line browsing experience. But, of course, the majority of users will probably use IE 8 because it will just appear on their machine one day after an automatic software update.

The arrival of IE 8 will be especially ho-hum because all eyes will be focused on the hot news for 2009: the arrival of the next-generation Operating Systems.

2009: The Year of the OS Wars

OK. Enough of 2008. This Keep reading and you’ll soon see that there are many parallels from the browser space to the OS space. And much of what motivated the browser developers to charge ahead is also causing ripples in the fabric of the entire personal computing universe.

History Repeats Itself #1: Speed is King

It’s no secret that Apple has gotten Microsoft’s attention lately. The market share of their Mac OS has neared 10% worldwide. It is significantly higher than 10% in the consumer sector (again, as with Firefox, this can be measured by observing weekend and evening browsing statistics). Apple seized the opportunity to avenge itself when Microsoft blundered with Vista in both the technical and marketing arenas. It’s no surprise, then, that when Apple announced that it’s new OS, “Snow Leopard”, will arrive in early 2009, Microsoft decided to shorten its timeline. “Windows 7″ is now slated for release some time in 2009, as well.

“Get a Mac” Ads

Like Safari, Snow Leopard will introduce its user into a new realm where tasks once thought impossibly slow are now feasible — or even fast! Apple’s engineers will accomplish this by tapping into the most under-utilized chip in almost every machine: the Graphics Processing Unit. On most recently built machines, especially the latest Macs, the GPU hardly breaks a sweat when rendering the graphics necessary for browsing the web or reading emails. It typically sits nearly idle until needed by a graphics-intesive task like watching full-screen video or playing a video game.

Many GPUs are capable of handling hundreds of simultaneous tasks. This is exactly what your machine needs for handling video and photography. Scientists are even starting to see the light: right now, astrophysicist are proving Einstein’s Theory of Relativity on a matrix of Playstation 3’s!

Playstation 3 Supercomputer

In addition, Snow Leopard promises to provide a 10% to 15% speed boost on everyday tasks without even touching the GPU. This will allow the Mac OS to provide an even richer, smoother experience than ever before. And if the Mac has a compatible GPU (this includes almost all Macs manufactured after Jan 2008 and some in 2007), certain tasks will see a 800% increase in performance — or more! Tasks that seem painfully slow now, such as creating slideshows, editing family videos, or browsing huge photo libraries, will be lightning fast.

History Repeats Itself #2: Open Source is a Viable Competitor

So what about Linux? Ubuntu (the Linux for the rest of us?) has certainly come of age. It’s a very capable operating system. It’s flexible and customizable, much like Firefox, and it has plenty of third-party software for consumers, including an iTunes alternative (Songbird) and a complete and compatible office suite (OpenOffice.org). But it hasn’t made a dent in the Windows stronghold.

Ubuntu
OpenOffice.org

The same was true of Mozilla’s Firefox. It wasn’t making a dent in Internet Explorer’s dominant position, despite being safer, faster, customizable, and much more pleasant to use. But Mozilla got a break. It got a sponsor: Google. Can Ubuntu get a sponsor? Maybe. And some people think it may be Google!

For some reason, Google has been hiding information about the operating system on 1/3 of its personal computers. Some have surmised that it’s because Google is creating it’s own Internet-oriented operating system. If this is true, it could further push Ubuntu into obscurity. On the other hand, some people believe that Google is only developing a meta-OS: an operating system that runs on top of your existing operating system and making it easier to find and consume online software and services. If this is true, then it could help Ubuntu by making the OS choice moot.

Does Google Have a Secret OS?

There’s also a chance that Google is using Ubuntu as the basis for it’s OS (similar to how the special purpose browsers, such as Flock and Songbird, use Mozilla’s engine underneath), but I find this very unlikely. Google seems to have taken more interest in Solaris. Besides, they have a track record of choosing technology solely on technical merits. They forked Chrome from the more modern Webkit (the engine inside Safari) rather than use the popular Gecko engine from their long-time partner Mozilla. They purchased the then-unknown Android, rather than license the most popular (but barely capable) mobile OS, Symbian. Just because Ubuntu is the most popular Linux-based consumer OS does not mean it’s on the short list even if it is a technically sound OS.

If Google is building an Internet-oriented meta-OS, it is not the only one. Dell and HP are rumored to be testing Linux-based OSes. These will also focus on online applications and services. In addition, several entrepreneurs have responded to the sudden popularity of Netbooks, which due to their low computing power, rely heavily on online services. Jolicloud (bad name, I know) and Eeebuntu even take it one step further by presenting an iPhone-like experience with a home page consisting of large square icons. We’ll see a few more of these special-purpose OSes in the coming year.

Don’t expect to see a “Grrls Only” OS or one aimed at music lovers, though, in 2009. It could be a year or two before those come along. (Although I wouldn’t put it past the French to create their own Euro-Linux sometime soon.) Again, expect Apple to burst onto the scene with a new Netbook-like offering in 2009.

Netbook (wikipedia)
Netvibes Founder Building iPhone-Like Operating System For Netbooks
Eeebuntu

History Repeats Itself #3: Microsoft Plays Catch-up

Meanwhile, up in Redmond, Microsoft scrambles to complete the next version of Windows: Windows 7. So what can we expect in Windows 7? Well, hopefully, Microsoft has finally made up their mind because it’s getting awfully late. They’ve already changed the name twice and have changed the proposed feature set on several occasions. As of today’s date, here’s the list. (Mac and Linux users: try to resist slapping your head and exclaiming “their copying us again!”)

Multi-touch*
Speech*
Handwriting recognition
Virtual hard disks*
Multi-core support*
Improved boot performance*
Kernel improvements*
Support for multiple, heterogeneous video cards
Gadgets*
Taskbar improvements (that are incredibly similar to the Mac’s Dock)*
Improved Calculator*
Home Networking*

The asterisks mark features that the Mac OS already has (or will be available in Snow Leopard). Linux has many of these, too. So, apparently, Windows 7 will yet again be a catch-up release. So fret not Windows users! As long as you can figure out the complicated Windows 7 pricing (which apparently will be even more confusing than Vista since several components will now be sold separately), you will get to enjoy a similar experience to your Mac and Linux brethren.

Of course, Mac and Linux users will be onto bigger and better things by the time Microsoft has the kinks worked out.

No Big Surprises on Your Phone

I wish I had something big to say about mobile OSes, but I don’t. Not that there won’t be a war raging. It’s already started. However, don’t expect any major new releases or shifts in power in 2009. The iPhone OS will keep its lead and will get the most visibility. Android will appear on a half-dozen new phones, but will still be the second-favorite mobile OS overall. Blackberry’s OS will continue to be the fave of business-oriented email junkies. Symbian will continue to be the least-liked, but most pervasive mobile OS on low-end phones. And, finally, Palm OS and Windows Mobile will see upgrades, but will be so ho-hum, that even advocates won’t have much good to say about them.

No, the big news in phones will be about attrition, unfortunately. I expect that either Palm or Motorola — or both — will drop out of the race.

In a year, we’ll look back and see if I had the faintest notion about what 2009 will bring. But if I am right, remember, you heard it here…